There’s a large number of commercial real estate loans coming due over the next couple of years—and for a lot of owners, the timing isn’t ideal.
Many of these loans were put in place when rates were low, leverage was easier to come by, and rent growth was doing a lot of the heavy lifting. That’s not the environment we’re in anymore.
If you’ve got a loan maturing in the next 12–36 months, it’s worth taking a hard look now—before you’re up against a deadline.
Why This Is Becoming a Bigger Conversation
Between 2019 and 2022, a lot of deals penciled because debt was cheap and widely available.
Now:
So when those loans come due, refinancing isn’t always straightforward.
In many situations, the same property won’t support the same loan amount it did a few years ago—and that’s where things get tricky.
What Owners Are Running Into
The biggest issue we’re seeing is a gap.
That leaves owners with a few choices:
None of those are necessarily bad—but they do require a plan.
What This Looks Like in Arizona, Utah, and Nevada
The Southwest has had a strong run—especially in self-storage. Population growth, in-migration, and development have all been tailwinds.
But more recently:
Lenders are paying close attention to those details right now. If your property isn’t fully stabilized, expect more questions—and more conservative terms.
How Lenders Are Thinking Today
Lenders are still active, but they’re not underwriting deals the same way they were a few years ago.
What we’re seeing:
It’s less about optimism and more about what the property is doing today.
The Decisions Owners Are Making
Most owners with upcoming maturities are doing one of three things:
Refinance and Hold
If the deal still works, this is the cleanest option. But even strong properties are sometimes coming to the table with additional equity to make it pencil.
Work with the Current Lender
Extensions are happening, but they usually come with updated terms—higher rates, fees, or additional reserves. It can be a useful bridge if you need more time.
Sell
Some owners are choosing to exit rather than put more capital into the deal. In a few cases, it’s a timing decision—getting ahead of more inventory that could hit the market.
Where This Creates Opportunity
When more loans come due at the same time, you naturally get more movement.
We’re already seeing:
For the right buyer, this can be a good window—especially if you’re patient and selective.
What You Should Be Doing Now
If you’ve got debt coming due, the best move is to get clarity early.
Start with:
Know where your numbers stand today
Not where they were—and not where you hope they’ll be.
Talk to lenders sooner rather than later
You’ll have more options when you’re not under pressure.
Look at your exit options, even if you plan to hold
It’s better to understand the market now than be surprised later.
Pay attention to your specific submarket
That matters more than broad national trends right now.
Final Thought
Nothing about this environment is unmanageable—but it does require more intention than it did a few years ago.
The owners who tend to navigate this well are the ones who get ahead of it, understand their options, and make decisions early—before they’re forced into one.
If you want to talk through your situation or see what your options actually look like in today’s market, we’re always happy to help: https://www.gorden-group.com/contact-us
